RECENT TRENDS OF OSCAR BEST PICTURE WINNERS – David Chan ’67

RECENT TRENDS OF OSCAR BEST PICTURE WINNERS – David Chan ’67

10 January 2018

The Oscar Best Picture Voting System:

Since 2010, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has expanded the quota for Best Picture nominees from only 5 movies to between 5 to 10 movies. It has also switched from a plurality system to a preferential system for the final voting for Best Picture.

Suppose there are 9 nominees. In the final voting, the Academy asks each member not to vote for just 1 nominee, but to rank all 9 nominees in the same ballot. Let’s say there are 6,000 members voting (referred to as “total ballots” below). If 1 nominee gets not less than 50% of the total ballots plus 1 (equaling to not less than 3,001, referred to as “hitting the target” below), then this nominee will be awarded Best Picture.

But if zero nominees hit the target, then the nominee with the least number one votes will be eliminated. On each of such eliminated ballot, the number two ranked nominee listed will then be counted as having received an additional number one vote (referred to as “re-distribution procedure” below). After this round of re-distribution procedure, if the total of the original number one votes and the newly added number one votes (referred to as “new total votes” below) of any one of the remaining 8 nominees hit the target, this nominee will be awarded Best Picture.

But if after the re-distribution procedure, still zero nominees hit the target, then the nominee with the least new total votes will be eliminated, and a new round of re-distribution procedure begins. On each of the newly eliminated ballot, if the number two ranked nominee listed has also been already eliminated, then the number three ranked nominee listed will be replaced as having received an additional number one vote. The rounds of re-distribution procedure will repeat until 1 remaining nominee hit the target.

 The Academy’s Objective for Such Voting System:

The Academy wants the Oscar Best Picture winner to be a movie that is best liked among most of the Academy members. Last year, for example, LA LA LAND’s popularity among Academy members was quite “polar” – many loved it, but many thought it was way too overrated. MOONLIGHT, on the other hand, was very much liked by most Academy members. So, under the preferential voting system, MOONLIGHT became Oscar Best Picture.

Trends Exhibited by Oscar Best Picture Winners under the New Voting System:

I have done some analyses on my own, and found some interesting trends among Oscar Best Picture winners since 2010. (One of these trends has been pointed out by other writers.)

1. The winner’s North American box office gross was always less than at least 3 of the other Oscar Best Picture nominees for the same year. For example, last year, among the nominees, the top grossing three in North America were HIDDEN FIGURES, LA LA LAND, and ARRIVAL. They did not win Oscar Best Picture.

2. The winner had always received beforehand a Screen Actors Guild Awards nomination for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. For example, last year, LA LA LAND did not receive such a nomination. It did not win Oscar Best Picture.

3. The winner had always received beforehand a Golden Globe nomination for either Best Motion Picture – Drama, or Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy.

4. The winner had always received beforehand a place among the Yearly Top Films list announced by the National Board of Review.

5. The winner’s critical rating as published by www.rottentomatoes.com had always been more than 90%.Using Such Trends to Predict This Year’s Oscar Best Picture Winner (even before the Academy has announced the Best Picture nominees):

Let us start with the Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. The nominees this year are THE BIG SICK, GET OUT, LADY BIRD, MUDBOUND, and THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI.

However, THE BIG SICK, MUDBOUND, and THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI did not get included in the Yearly Top Films list announced by the National Board of Review.

So only GET OUT and LADY BIRD remain to be contenders. GET OUT’s North American box office has already reached $175,686,870, and is almost certain to be one of the top three grossing movies among the potential Oscar Best Picture nominees. (The other two likely top grossing nominees would be COCO and DUNKIRK, or DUNKIRK and THE POST.)

So only LADY BIRD remains. It has already qualified under Trends 2 to 5 listed above, and is quite likely to qualify under Trend 1.

Therefore, if the above listed trends prevail this year, LADY BIRD seems positioned to win Oscar Best Picture.

Industry People Are Predicting Exceptions to Existing Trends This Year:

1. The unprecedented momentum of the Me Too/Time’s Up Movement would likely affect the voting of Academy members. THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI, for example, is about a mother seeking justice for her daughter who was raped and murdered. Such content would seem very politically correct in respect to the Movement.

2. Several movies, such as THE POST and ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD, were very late in sending out DVD screeners to members of various guilds due to delays in post-production. Consequently, these movies were not seen by Screen Actors Guild members before such members voted for nominations for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, perhaps resulting in these movies not getting nominated by Screen Actors Guild. But Academy voters have now received the DVD screeners and may vote for these movies in Oscar ballots.

Final Words:

I hope the above gives you a better understanding about the upcoming Oscar Best Picture race. Should you need more information, please do not hesitate to let me know.

Thank you for reading.

David

 

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「老呆遊記」之「人有三急」

(Through Rose-Coloured Glasses)

老呆,老人癡呆之謂也。

老呆出外遠遊,經常有個口頭禪,掛在嘴邊:

     有得去時便須去

     莫待無廁空叫急

老呆有位朋友,每次旅遊,當旅行團要出發了,導遊提醒大家,作好準備,辦妥一切公事。但這位朋友,往往都無需要,I am good. 但開車後不久,他就釀著「人有三急」了。

又有一回,在北京,因為交通阻塞,要提前出發,大家都急忙集合上車。車行不出五分鐘,同行的一位兄弟,就大聲鼓噪起來,急得有如熱窩上的螞蟻,「前線告急」,幸好導遊眼利,見到遠處有一所公廁。旅遊車一停下來,這位兄弟就有如龍捲風一般,衝了出去。回來時,不好意思,小聲地:多喝了杯咖啡。

出門前,最好多少也換上一些當地的硬幣,以備不時之需,因為有很多國家( 以歐洲的國家為甚 ),上廁所是要收費的。如果身上沒有適當的硬幣,那就只會望門輕嘆,空著急了。

在巴黎近郊的一個小鎮上,有一座自動化的洗手間。放入適當的硬幣,廁所門就會自動打開,讓用進去解決三急。用後推門出來。聽說,曾經有人太過精在第一位客人出來時,推著門潛入,想免費使用,誰想到,門一關上,廁所就會自動噴水來清洗,結果弄得全身衣服盡濕。

真是雞唔到蝕把米。

在瑞典的斯德哥爾摩,卻碰到一個很特別的公廁模式。在那裡的火車總站,是個大型商場,裡邊商店林立,其中一個鋪位,就是一所公廁,當然是要收費的。如果顧客沒有現金,不用怕,這公廁是收信用卡的。繳費後進去,洗手間也有二十多間,管理得很乾淨,不時有員工在清潔,而且更是客似云來,也不用久候。

到收費,又記起在羅馬的一件趣事。老呆剛從公廁出來,門前有位大嬸在休息,還跟她打了個招呼。接著迎面而來是一隊自遊行的香港旅客,看樣子,是批很富旅遊經驗的識途老馬,帶頭的領隊,還在討論,上廁應收費多少。隊長見到大嬸,就自信地大聲急急發問:How much ? 大嬸打了個突,還末得回答,第二次 How much 又來了。大嬸趕快回了個价錢,也就樂意收取每人的繳費。其實,我用廁所時,既沒有大嬸,更沒有繳費。

聰明自有聰明誤,太過精叻了。

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《一月一日一場雪》__ 陳瑞文-(71)

《一月一日一場雪》

一月一日一場雪
一草一木一絮綿
望天望地望雁燕
望上望下望徒然

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《二零一八》 __ 陳瑞文 (71)

二零一八                                                                                  2018NY
心靈開發
澄明洞察
精誠通達

瑞文與君共勉

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《二零一八心靈開發》__ 陳瑞文 (71)

《二零一八心靈開發》

二十一世紀
零亂難民潮
一隅戰火起
八方禍害招
心慟哀傷絕
靈光何遠遙
開啟慈悲智
發願仇恨消

【 轉眼已是二零一八年,觀時審局,但見難民潮湧,戰雲密佈,核鬥陰霾,怎不令人痛心! 試問危難何由解決? 唯有世人返躬内省,開發心靈,啟用慈悲智慧,力求恨解仇消。】

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Auld Lang Syne with Chinese from Raymond Lee (65)

Auld Lang Syne
1st verse
Should old acquaintance be forgot/ And never brought to mind?
Should old acquaintance be forgot/ And auld lang syne?
For auld lang syne, my dear/ For auld lang syne
We’ll take a cup of kindness yet/ For auld lang syne,

2nd verse
(李榮輝 WYK1965)
求永遠記得  你共我  今晚同渡這刻,
今晚把酒慶祝  與並肩好友 舊調重唱,
請你珍惜健康  來日生趣  淡淡細賞,
相見亦是緣份  盼可跟你  日後重見。

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2018年「福」字月曆 __ 陳瑞文 (71)

收到區德銓同學送贈的2018年月曆,上有一個搶眼特大的「福」字,感謝之餘,賦詩一首,新年祈福:

大福觸目,金銀滿屋,
有魚有肉,衣食豐足。
花團錦簇,家室和睦,
親友眷屬,高壽厚祿。
土地肥沃,糧倉滿穀,
台灣大陸,不統不獨。
中華民族,光環恢復,
新年祈福,盡訴心曲。

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《Christmas Party at Nursing Home in LA》__ Don Chen (71)

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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

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《特朗普的美國》__ 陳瑞文 (71)

《特朗普的美國》

種族仇恨猖
貧富對立獰
重鎗輕人命
黨政敗國情
謊言蔽真相
歪理掩忠誠
私利害公義
戰爭滅和平

我請張炳鑫替我英譯:

《Donald Trump’s United States of America》
Continue reading

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